Twitter: @pakremp

New: What is the probability that your vote will decide the election? (with Andrew Gelman). R code available here.

New: Updating the Forecast on Election Night with R. R code available here.

Last update: Tuesday, November 8, 3:24am ET.

This is a Stan implementation of Drew Linzer’s dynamic Bayesian election forecasting model, with some tweaks to incorporate national poll data, pollster house effects, correlated priors on state-by-state election results and correlated polling errors.

For more details on the original model:

Linzer, D. 2013. “Dynamic Bayesian Forecasting of Presidential Elections in the States.” Journal of the American Statistical Association. 108(501): 124-134. (link)

The Stan and R files are available here.

1455 polls available since April 01, 2016 (including 1129 state polls and 326 national polls).

Electoral College