you said Agent Based Modeling (ABM)?

ABM : what is it ?

A change in modeling paradigm ! ok but when use it?

• local interactions
• individual variability
• adapation

So when :

• you can't resolve a problem by analytic way
• a phenomenon is nonlinear

ABM is for social sciences what Petri dish is for biology

What is COMMOD?

• posture based on a cycling approach
• actor are integred in the modeling proscess
• discussion of assumptions and feedbacks
• permanent confrontation of real and model processes to take into account uncertainty

Olivier Barreteau et al. 2003

a way to take care about empirisme and modelisation

Tubaro, P. et A. Casilli (2010).

Our case study: AcidityGIS

Explore the response of a territory to various cooperative incentives in the context of vine-growing and climate change.

Study area 1/2

Study area 2/2

Climatic stuff

Since 2012, thanks TERVICLIM -- ADVICLIM program we have 11 temperature sensor in vinyards

Grape ripening and space

Vinegrower and Companion Modelling

we work on socio-spacial vinegrower behavior, and different scenario with the cooperative in a iterative way.

1. Work in focus-group (FC)
2. ABM formalisation
3. Critical workshop with FC
4. ABM formalisation
5. ...

AcidityGIS structure

With climate change, the temperature rise is expected to decrease acidity since the total acidity is correlated with temperature (e.g. (see the works of Buttrose et al., 1971; Van Leeuwen et al., 2004; Sweetman et al., 2014, etc.)

Coop. behaviors

Target : 3 g × L⁻¹ of sulfuric acid

Sensibility Analysis

With ABM, and COMMOD we deal with uncertainty... so our model is systematically explored with 1920 simulations

Some results

An ABM acidityGIS

What happened with acidity ?

Landscape : an other issues

Cooperative can influence different kind of landscape ?

Discussion/Conclusions

Lessons 1/2

• Cooperative policies can have impacts far more important on landscape and wine quality than climate change itself.
• Cooperative incentives can help in preparing to future problematic situations by anticipating the objective wine quality and driving vine-growers to use higher altitudes.

Lessons 2/2

• The trajectories are more interesting than specific results.
• Our model showed that the mountain can be perceived as an asset to adapt to climate change.
• Illustrates that for such territories, local stakeholders have their own capacity to take measures to anticipate and adapt to potential CC.

You want to find the complete story ?

Appendix

AcidityGIS is one of them

Drive territorial prospective initiatives

Stakeholders models expectations